International Olympic Committee president Jacques Rogge has stated that he expects the race for the 2016 Olympics to be decided by ‘a couple of votes’.
Rogge also played down the role that Barack Obama could play in helping Chicago secure the Games, stating that the vote would not hinge on whether US President goes to the IOC meeting in Denmark next month to push his home city’s bid.
Rogge spoke three weeks before the IOC meeting in Copenhagen on 2nd October where the 100-plus members will vote by secret ballot on awarding the 2016 Summer Games to Chicago, Madrid, Rio de Janeiro or Tokyo.
Said Rogge: ‘I see really no favourite. I think it’s going to be a very close vote. I think the final vote will be decided by a couple of votes only.’
‘There is no favourite. There is no bid that is lagging behind. All the scenarios are possible.’
One of the big uncertainties is whether Obama will travel to Copenhagen to lobby IOC members for Chicago’s campaign to bring the Summer Olympics back to the US for the first time since the 1996 Atlanta Games.
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has said he will be there to try to persuade the IOC to send the Olympics to South America for the first time. King Juan Carlos of Spain will be there for Madrid’s bid. Japan has invited incoming Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama and Crown Prince Naruhito to attend.
Rogge said he has no information about Obama’s plans and had firm confirmation only of the Spanish king’s attendance.
‘I expect this to come out probably in a fortnight at latest because there are security arrangements, there are protocol issues, there is accommodation. I guess all of this will crystalize in the next two weeks.’
Rogge dismissed speculation that Chicago’s chances will be harmed if Obama doesn’t go.
‘Absolutely not. There is no obligation to come. There is neither a tradition for all the heads of state to come. We wouldn’t see that as being negative whatsoever. I’m sure that if a head of state will not be coming, that head of state will definitely make a video presentation or send letters and things like that.
‘If they want to come, this is an honour for the IOC. We’ll feel honoured by their presence. It would be absolutely legitimate if they go to defend the bid of their country. We are not asking for heads of state to come there.
‘They are most welcome, but this is not something that we consider as being the most important thing. It is symbolically important. They have an influence by their charisma, but it is not something the IOC is seeking and going after.’
Rogge added that the IOC members’ trust in the bid committee leaders will be key.
‘I think what counts most is the confidence that the members have in the future organizers. It’s an issue of a human chemistry. The question we’re going to ask ourselves is: A, is the file a solid one? And B, do we trust the people who made the bid to be the ones who will deliver? Do we trust these people? … I think everything being equal between the four candidates, it’s the human factor that will be the most important.’
Rogge said he believes most IOC members already know their choice for 2016, but that ‘two or three or four votes’ could be swung by the final presentations on the day of the vote.